The third one is a particular case of the second one. Every expert has a vision of the current state of an industry, its future, and the best strategy an organization should take to be successful. But unfortunately, experts are humans, and a cognitive distortion known as "confirmation bias" makes them see only facts that underpin their theory about the industry and ignore the ones which contradict it.
The fourth reason is about the idea that there are no experts in the future, there are only experts in the past. Therefore, most experts' forecasts are the facts from the past extrapolated to the future. They might be right sometime, but tomorrow is full of surprises, and it is rarely a linear continuation of the past and the present.
So, futurists prefer to organize foresight workshops in the form of games and look ten years ahead - not three or five. The game unleashes participants' imagination and helps overcome what I call "thinking bias." When someone is called an "expert," and we ask them to share their opinion, they start thinking too hard to justify their titles and try to look as smart as possible. But the future is unpredictable, and hard thinking doesn't help much in visualizing it.
And we look ten years ahead because if the game participants consider a shorter-term future scenario in which the world will be pretty much different from what it is now, it might be seen as a threat to their current strategy. And as a result, they may rule out this scenario as "unlikely" only to stay in their comfort zone, in the world to which their strategy is suitable.
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